Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
○ Wiley
Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses's content profile, based on 44 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
McNair, E. A.; Kwon, J. H.; Grijalva, C. G.; McLaren, S. H.; Biddle, J. E.; Dean, S.; White, E. B.; Fritz, S. A.; Presti, R. M.; O'Neil, C. A.; Sano, E.; Vargas, C.; Schmitz, J. E.; Zhu, Y.; Scott, T. A.; House, S.; Talbot, H. K.; Stockwell, M. S.; Mellis, A. M.
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Background: Oseltamivir is an antiviral medication for influenza that can reduce the duration of symptoms and may lower the risk of some complications. Recommendations for use of oseltamivir include in the outpatient setting for individuals at higher risk of developing influenza complications. Objectives: To describe oseltamivir initiation and treatment completion among influenza-positive outpatients and identify factors associated with each. Methods: In a U.S. outpatient household transmission study, index participants with laboratory-confirmed influenza provided up to 12 days of detailed information on medication use. We described oseltamivir initiation among index cases and treatment course completion of [≥] 10 doses among cases who initiated oseltamivir. We used unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression to identify factors associated with initiation and course completion. Results: Among 823 enrolled index cases, 324 (39%) initiated oseltamivir treatment. Of 406 persons at higher risk for influenza complications, 172 (42%) initiated treatment. Oseltamivir initiation was lowest among children aged 2 to < 5 years (19%) compared to all other age groups. Among 313 cases who initiated oseltamivir, 42% completed the recommended treatment course of [≥] 10 doses. Among 163 individuals at higher risk of influenza complications, 69 (42%) completed the recommended treatment course of [≥] 10 doses. Children < 2 years were significantly less likely to complete treatment compared to adults aged 18-50 years (aOR: 0.21, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.78, p= 0.030); reasons for discontinuation could not be determined. Conclusions: These findings reveal differences in oseltamivir treatment in an outpatient setting among groups at higher risk for influenza complications.
Chen, B.; Zambrana, J. V.; Shotwell, A.; Sanchez, N.; Plazaola, M.; Ojeda, S.; Lopez, R.; Stadlbauer, D.; Kuan, G.; Balmaseda, A.; Krammer, F.; Gordon, A.
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Background: Although the hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titer remains the gold standard correlate of protection against influenza, it does not fully capture the broader antibody responses that contribute to immunity. Methods: We analyzed immune responses in paired pre-infection and convalescent sera from 306 RT-PCR-confirmed A/H3N2 infections from two household studies (2014-18) in Managua, Nicaragua. Antibody responses were measured by HAI and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) against full-length hemagglutinin (HA), the HA stalk, and neuraminidase (NA). Participants were classified as HAI responders ([≥]4-fold HAI rise), alternate responders (no HAI rise but [≥]4-fold boost in [≥]1 ELISA), or no-response individuals (no [≥]4-fold rise in any assay). We compared demographic, clinical, and pre-infection antibody characteristics across these groups. We also analyzed predictors of an NA response. Results: Overall, 77% of participants had HAI seroconversion or a 4-fold rise. Among the 23% HAI non-responders, 62% had alternate antibody responses. No-response individuals had the highest pre-infection HAI and full-length HA titers (p < 0.0001), the lowest viral loads, and the fewest fever or influenza like illness (ILI) symptoms (p < 0.01). An NA response was more common among symptomatic individuals (p = 0.0483) and those with low or high baseline NA titers. Conclusions: High baseline HAI titers can limit detectable 4-fold rises and are associated with milder illness. Evaluating additional immune responses may capture a more complete picture of the host response to infection, thereby improving surveillance and informing vaccine development. Keywords: Influenza A/H3N2; Hemagglutination inhibition (HAI); Neuraminidase antibodies; symptomatic vs asymptomatic infection; correlates of protection.
Hassell, N.; Marcenac, P.; Bationo, C. S.; Hirve, S.; Tempia, S.; Rolfes, M. A.; Duca, L. M.; Hammond, A.; Wijesinghe, P. R.; Heraud, J.-M.; Pereyaslov, D.; Zhang, W.; Kondor, R. J.; Azziz-Baumgartner, E.
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Introduction: Modeling when influenza epidemics typically occur can help countries optimize surveillance, time clinical and public health interventions, and reduce the burden of influenza. Methods: We used influenza virus detections reported during 2011-2024 by 180 countries to the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System, excluding COVID-19 pandemic impacted years (2020-2023). We analyzed data by calendar year (week 1-52) or shifted year (week 30-29) time windows, based on when most influenza detections occurred in each country. For countries with sufficient data, we computed generalized additive models (GAMs) of each country's weekly influenza-positive tests to smooth and impute time series distributions. From these GAMs, we calculated each country's normalized weekly influenza burden. Country-specific normalized time series were grouped using hierarchical k-means clustering reducing the Euclidean distance between time series within clusters. We calculated cluster-specific GAMs to estimate average seasonal timing. Countries without sufficient data were assigned to a cluster based on population-weighted latitudinal distance to a cluster's mean latitude. Results: We identified five clusters, or epidemic zones, from 111 countries with sufficient data. The influenza burden in epidemic zones A and B was consistent with a northern hemisphere pattern, with most influenza detections occurring during October-April (A) and September-March (B), while epidemic zones D and E were characterized by southern hemisphere-like seasonal timing, with most influenza burden occurring during May-November. Epidemic zone C had most influenza burden occurring during September-March; most countries assigned to this cluster were in the tropics. Conclusion: Epidemic zones may serve as a useful tool to strengthen and optimize influenza surveillance for global health decision-making (e.g., during vaccine strain composition discussions) and to guide country preparedness efforts for seasonal influenza epidemics, including the timing of enhanced surveillance, as well as the procurement and delivery of vaccines and antivirals.
DeCuir, J.; Reeves, E. L.; Weber, Z. A.; Yang, D.-H.; Irving, S. A.; Tartof, S. Y.; Klein, N. P.; Grannis, S. J.; Ong, T. C.; Ball, S. W.; DeSilva, M. B.; Dascomb, K.; Naleway, A. L.; Koppolu, P.; Salas, S. B.; Sy, L. S.; Lewin, B.; Contreras, R.; Zerbo, O.; Hansen, J. R.; Block, L.; Jacobson, K. B.; Dixon, B. E.; Rogerson, C.; Duszynski, T.; Fadel, W. F.; Barron, M. A.; Mayer, D.; Chavez, C.; Yates, A.; Kirshner, L.; McEvoy, C. E.; Akinsete, O. O.; Essien, I. J.; Sheffield, T.; Bride, D.; Arndorfer, J.; Van Otterloo, J.; Natarajan, K.; Ray, C. S.; Payne, A. B.; Adams, K.; Flannery, B.; Garg,
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Background: The 2024-25 influenza season was the most severe in the United States (US) since 2017-18, with co-circulation of both influenza A virus subtypes (H1N1 and H3N2). Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) has varied by season, setting, and patient characteristics. Methods: Using electronic healthcare encounter data from eight US states, we evaluated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza-associated hospitalizations and emergency department or urgent care (ED/UC) encounters from October 2024-April 2025 among children aged 6 months-17 years and adults aged 18+ years. Using a test-negative, case-control design, we compared the odds of influenza vaccination between acute respiratory illness (ARI) encounters with a positive (cases) versus negative (controls) test for influenza by molecular assay, adjusting for confounders. Results: Analyses included 108,618 encounters (5,764 hospitalizations and 102,854 ED/UC encounters) among children and 309,483 encounters (76,072 hospitalizations and 233,411 ED/UC encounters) among adults. Among children across care settings, 17.0% (6,097/35,765) of cases versus 29.4% (21,449/72,853) of controls were vaccinated. Among adults, 28.2% (21,832/77,477) of cases versus 44.2% (102,560/232,006) of controls were vaccinated. VE was 51% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 41-60%) against influenza-associated hospitalizations and 54% (95% CI: 52-55%) against influenza-associated ED/UC encounters among children. VE was 43% (95% CI: 41-46%) against influenza-associated hospitalizations and 49% (95% CI: 47-50%) against influenza-associated ED/UC encounters among adults. Conclusions: Influenza vaccination provided protection against influenza-associated hospitalizations and ED/UC encounters among children and adults in the US during the severe 2024-25 influenza season. These findings support influenza vaccination as an important tool to reduce influenza-associated disease.
Lewis, N. M.; Cleary, S.; Harker, E. J.; Safdar, B.; Ginde, A. A.; Peltan, I. D.; Gaglani, M.; Columbus, C.; Martin, E. T.; Lauring, A. S.; Steingrub, J. S.; Hager, D. N.; Mohamed, A.; Johnson, N. J.; Khan, A.; Duggal, A.; Wilson, J. G.; Qadir, N.; Busse, L. W.; Kwon, J. H.; Exline, M. C.; Vaughn, I. A.; Mosier, J. M.; Harris, E. S.; Zhu, Y.; Grijalva, C. G.; Halasa, N. B.; Chappell, J.; Surie, D.; Dawood, F. S.; Ellington, S. R.; Self, W. H.
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Background: The U.S. 2024-2025 influenza season was characterized by sustained elevated activity from November 2024 to April 2025, with circulation of both influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), the latter of which included some antigenically drifted viruses. Methods: From October 1, 2024, to April 30, 2025, a multistate respiratory virus surveillance network enrolled adults hospitalized with acute respiratory illness in 26 U.S. medical centers. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza-associated hospitalization and severe in-hospital outcomes was estimated using a test-negative study. The odds of influenza vaccination among influenza-positive case patients and influenza-negative control patients were compared using multivariable logistic regression; VE was calculated as (1-adjusted odds ratio for vaccination) x 100, expressed as a percent. Results: The 2024-2025 seasonal influenza vaccine was effective against influenza-associated hospitalization (VE: 40% [95% confidence interval (CI): 32%-47%]), consistent across age group and influenza A subtypes. Influenza vaccination also reduced the overall risk of all severe in-hospital outcomes evaluated, including standard oxygen therapy (VE: 41% [95% CI: 31%-50%]), non-invasive advanced respiratory support (VE: 38% [95% CI: 19%-52%]), invasive organ support (VE: 58% [95% CI: 44%-69%]), ICU admission (VE: 58% [95% CI: 47%-67%]), and death (VE: 52% [95% CI: 18%-71%]) with effectiveness varying by influenza A subtype and age. Conclusions: Influenza vaccination reduced the risk of influenza-related hospitalization and severe in-hospital outcomes in adults during the severe 2024-2025 influenza season compared to those not vaccinated.
Meagher, N.; Hettiarachchi, D.; Hawkins, M. R.; Tavlian, S.; Spirkoska, V.; McVernon, J.; Carville, K. S.; Price, D. J.; Villanueva Cabezas, J. P.; Marcato, A. J.
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BackgroundThe World Health Organization has developed several global template protocols for epidemiological investigations, including for household transmission investigations (HHTIs). These investigations facilitate rapid characterisation of novel or re-emerging respiratory pathogens and support evidence-based public health actions. Beyond technical readiness, community buy-in is central to the feasibility and acceptability of HHTIs. Research is needed to determine the perceived legitimacy among the community to inform local protocol adaptation and development of implementation plans that consider community attitudes and needs. MethodsIn 2025, we conducted a convenience survey of community members living in Victoria, Australia to explore: their understanding of emerging respiratory diseases; their willingness to take part in public health surveillance activities such as HHTIs; the acceptability of clinical and epidemiological data collection and respiratory/blood sample collection as main components of HHTIs, and; participant comfort towards including their companion animals in HHTIs. ResultsWe received 282 survey responses, of which 235 were included in the analysis dataset. Compared to the general Victorian population, our participants included a higher proportion of participants who reported being female, tertiary-educated, of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander heritage, born in Australia and speaking only English at home. Participants indicated overall high levels of comfort and acceptability towards participation in HHTIs, particularly in relation to clinical and epidemiological data collection, with lesser but still high levels of comfort with providing multiple respiratory specimens in a 14-day period. Participants were least comfortable with other specimens such as urine and blood. Involving companion animals in HHTIs was similarly acceptable as human-focused components. ConclusionsDespite our survey population being non-representative of the general Victorian population, our findings provide valuable descriptive insights into the acceptability of HHTIs in Victoria, Australia from which to benchmark future local and international surveys and community engagement activities.
Carstens, G.; Mazzoli, M.; Gozzi, N.; van Hoek, A. J.; Paolotti, D.
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Background: The annual respiratory season in Europe is marked by the co-circulation of multiple respiratory pathogens, such as influenza viruses, rhinoviruses, and coronaviruses. Effective surveillance is necessary but hampered by heterogeneity of case definitions and limited pathogen specificity in existing systems. This study aims to detect pathogen-specific signals in the participatory surveillance of the Netherlands using a sub-set of samples with virological detection. Additionally, we explore a method to use the findings in the Netherlands to enhance the virological interpretation of participatory surveillance data in Italy. Methods: We analyzed symptom data collected through a participatory surveillance platform in the Netherlands and Italy over five years (2020-2025). Symptom-by-week matrices from the Dutch cohort were aggregated into syndromes and their associated time series using Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF). We compared the respective time series of the syndromes with influenza virus, SARS-CoV-2, seasonal coronaviruses, RSV, and rhinovirus incidence estimated from nose- and throat swabs of a subsample of symptomatic participants of the participatory surveillance platform in the Netherlands. We tested the transferability of these components by applying the Dutch-derived components to describe Italian symptom data and extract respective incidences. Results: NMF identified eight symptom clusters in the Dutch cohort, one aligning with SARS-CoV-2, one aligning with rhinovirus and a third component aligning with influenza virus, RSV and seasonal incidences estimated from collected nose- and throat swabs. Transferring Dutch-derived symptom clusters to Italian data showed consistency in key components between Dutch and Italian cohorts, particularly those associated with SARS-CoV-2. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that unsupervised symptom decomposition can identify co-circulating respiratory pathogens trends from syndromic surveillance data, providing timely pathogen circulation insights.
Ho, M. Q.; Duong, T. B.; Nguyen, T. L. N.; Tri, N. S.; Bui, T.; Thai, T. T.; Muscatello, D. J.; Sunjaya, A. J.; Chen, S.; Nguyen, N. T.; Nguyen, T. M.; Nguyen, A. T. K.; Duong, C. M.
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The A(H1N1)pdm09 virus remains a major global health threat. This study examined the burden of ICU admission, mortality, and associated predictors among patients with A(H1N1)pdm09 pneumonia in a leading center for infectious diseases in Vietnam. Information on demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics, and outcomes was retrieved from medical records of adults admitted with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 during 2009-2019. Among 729 cases, 21.7% (158/729) developed pneumonia. Among 158 pneumonia cases, 36.7% (58/158) developed moderate-to-severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and 15.2% (24/158) received invasive ventilation. ICU admission and mortality rates were 48.7% (77/158, 95%CI 41.1-56.5%) and 8.2% (13/158, 95%CI 4.9-13.6%), respectively. Predictors of ICU admission included being >60 years old (adjusted OR [AOR] 13.864, 95%CI 2.185-87.956, P=0.005), comorbidities (AOR 6.527, 95%CI 1.710-24.915, P=0.006), AST (AOR 1.013, 95%CI 1.001-1.025, P=0.029), and moderate-to-severe ARDS (AOR 14.027, 95%CI 4.220-46.627, P<0.001). Predictors of mortality were invasive ventilation (AOR 55.355, 95%CI 1.486-2062.375, P=0.030) and double-dose oseltamivir or combination therapy (AOR 32.625, 95%CI 1.594-667.661, P=0.024). In conclusion, mortality is not rare in A(H1N1)pdm09 infection. Monitoring of older patients and those with comorbidities, liver enzyme elevation, or moderate-to-severe ARDS is essential for the timely detection of complications requiring intensive care.
WANG, W.; Goguet, e.; Lusvarghi, S.; Paz, S.; Shrestha, L.; Vassell, R.; Pollett, S.; Mitre, E.; Weiss, C. D.
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BackgroundWidespread immunity from vaccination and infection has reduced COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, but this immunity varies across the population. Understanding how repeated antigenic exposures influence antibody responses helps to inform future vaccination strategies. MethodsSerum samples collected one and six months after XBB.1.5 vaccination from 25 generally healthy healthcare workers with varying exposure histories were assessed for neutralizing activity against a range of variants, from pre-Omicron variants to latest Omicron JN.1 sublineage variants and divergent BA.3.2 variants, using lentiviral pseudoviruses. Participants were stratified by vaccination and infection history. ResultsXBB.1.5 vaccination elicited broad neutralizing responses, with strong boosting against previously encountered antigens relative to vaccine-matched XBB.1.5 and newer variants. Geometric mean neutralization titers were generally comparable across exposure groups, indicating limited influence of prior Omicron infection or bivalent vaccination, though intra-group heterogeneity was observed. At six months, overall titers declined by 36-62%. Titers remained highest against the pre-Omicron and lowest against JN.1 sublineage variants. N-terminal glycosylation (DelS31, T22N) modestly affected neutralization. ConclusionsXBB.1.5 vaccination elicited broad neutralizing antibody responses against previously encountered and vaccine-matched antigens regardless of exposure history, but titers waned after six months. This waning, compounded by continued emergence of immune-evasive variants and heterogenous population immunity, underscores the need for continually monitoring neutralizing antibody durability and breadth to guide evidence-based COVID-19 vaccine formulation updates.
Shinto, H.; Chowell, G.; Takayama, Y.; Ohki, Y.; Saito, K.; Mizumoto, K.
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BackgroundIn long-term care facilities (LTCFs), close-contact identification often relies on staff recall and monitoring records because residents may be unable to self-report reliably. How these different record-generation processes relate to proximity-based sensor measurements in routine LTCF workflow remain unclear, and how such differences may influence contact-based decision-making in outbreak response is not well understood. MethodsWe conducted a five-day observational study in a Japanese LTCF using ultra-wideband (UWB) indoor positioning. Twenty-seven participants wore UWB tags, including 16 residents and 11 staff members; 10 staff members completed questionnaires. We compared UWB-derived proximity with questionnaire-derived contacts from staff self-report and monitoring-based proxy records, and assessed directional discrepancies under multiple distance-time thresholds. ResultsQuestionnaire-based records and UWB-derived proximity showed different patterns of discrepancy across contact types. Within this facility, resident-related monitoring-based proxy records showed relatively small directional discrepancies, whereas staff self-reports tended to identify additional resident-staff contacts under the baseline threshold ([≤]1.0 m for [≥]15 min). Several alternative thresholds were associated with discrepancies closer to zero than the baseline, although the apparent ranking varied by summary metric. ConclusionsIn this single-facility observational study, different contact-list generation processes were associated with different patterns of discrepancy relative to a proximity-based operational measure. These findings support interpretation in terms of workflow-specific contact-list generation rather than a single universally optimal threshold and may help inform facility-level review of contact identification practices in LTCFs. These findings support aligning contact identification strategies with facility-specific workflows to improve the feasibility and effectiveness of IPC practices in LTCFs.
Robert, A.; Goodfellow, L.; Pellis, L.; van Leeuwen, E.; Edmunds, W. J.; Quilty, B. J.; van Zandvoort, K.; Eggo, R. M.
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BackgroundIn England, the burden of respiratory infections varies by ethnicity, contributing to health inequalities, but the role of additional demographic factors remains underexplored. We quantified how differences in social mixing and demographic characteristics between ethnic groups cause inequalities in transmission dynamics. MethodsWe analysed the association between the ethnicity and the number of contacts of 12,484 participants in the 2024-2025 Reconnect social contact survey, using a negative binomial regression model. We simulated respiratory pathogen epidemics using a compartmental model stratified by age, ethnicity, and contact levels, at a national level and in major cities in England. FindingsAfter adjusting for demographic variables, participants of Black and Mixed ethnicities had more contacts than those of White ethnicity (rate ratios (RR): 1.18 [95% Credible Interval (CI): 1.11-1.26], and 1.31 [95% CI: 1.14-1.52]). Participants of Asian ethnicity had fewer contacts (RR: 0.85 [95% CI: 0.79-0.91]). In national-level simulations, individuals of White ethnicity had the lowest attack rates due to demographic differences and mixing patterns. Local demographic structures changed simulated dynamics: attack rates in individuals of Black and Mixed ethnicities were approximately double those of White ethnicity in Birmingham, but less than 60% higher in Liverpool. InterpretationDemographic characteristics and mixing patterns create inequalities in transmission dynamics between ethnicities, while local demographic characteristics and pathogen infectiousness change the expected relative burden. To ensure mitigation strategies are effective and equitable, their evaluation must explicitly account for inequalities arising from local context. FundingMedical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Wellcome Trust Research in context Evidence before this studyWe searched PubMed for population-based studies quantifying differences in respiratory infections between ethnic groups, up to 1 April 2026, with no language restrictions. Keywords included: (respiratory pathogens OR influenza OR COVID-19) AND (ethnic* OR race) AND (inequ*) AND (compartmental model OR incidence rate ratio OR hazard ratio). We excluded studies that focused on non-respiratory pathogens (e.g. looking at consequences of COVID-19 on incidence of other pathogens). A population-based cohort study showed that influenza infection risk was higher in South Asian, Black, and Mixed ethnic groups compared to White ethnicity in England. Another population-based cohort study highlighted that during the first wave of COVID-19 in England, the South Asian, Black, and Mixed ethnic groups were more likely to test positive and to be hospitalised than the White ethnic group. Census data in England showed that the distributions of age, household size, household income and employment status differed between ethnic groups, and the recent Reconnect social contact surveys highlighted the impact of each demographic factor on the participants number of contacts. Added value of this studyOur study shows that social contact patterns, mixing, and demographic structure all lead to unequal infection risk between ethnic groups in respiratory pathogen epidemics. Using the largest available social contact survey in England, we show that both the average number of contacts and the proportion of high-contact individuals varied by ethnic group, even after adjusting for participants demographics. These differences, together with mixing patterns and age structure, led to lower expected incidence among individuals of White ethnicity than in all other ethnic groups in simulated outbreaks. The level of inequality between ethnic groups changed when we used different values of pathogen transmissibility. Finally, as ethnic composition and population structure differ between cities in England, our results show differences in expected inequalities at a local level. Implications of all the available evidenceInequalities in infection risk between ethnic groups are context- and pathogen-dependent. They arise from both local population structure and contact patterns. Detailed information on mixing between groups and population structure is needed to accurately measure group-specific infection risk. These findings indicate that public health interventions based only on national-level estimates conceal regional variation in risk and may ultimately increase inequalities. Public health interventions need to be tailored to local contexts to be equitable and effective. Finally, our findings provide a foundation for understanding the progression from infection-risk inequalities to disparities in disease presentation and clinical outcomes.
Cottrell-Daniels, C.; Sadig, N.; Haddan, S.; Roman, S.; Simmons, V. N.; Schabath, M. B.
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Background While a mobile lung cancer screening (mLCS) program can mitigate barriers to access, this study conducted a survey study to assess barriers and facilitators to mLCS which could inform the implementation of new mLCS programs or inform modifications to existing programs. Methods Patient eligibility included current age of 50 to 80 and had undergone any cancer screening at Moffitt Cancer Center (MCC) between January 1, 2023 and December 1, 2024. A web-based survey was administered from May 2025 to June 2025 which collected data on health behaviors, barriers, facilitators, screening preferences, and demographics. Descriptive statistics were used to quantify survey responses. Results Among participants who completed the survey, 73.4% reported no concerns about getting screened in a mobile screening unit, 67.9% reported concerned about the cost or if insurance covered mobile lung cancer screening, and 82.4% reported they would be screened if a voucher or insurance would pay for it. For preferences, 54.1% reported no preference for the time of year for a mobile screening event, 59.6% reported they will be willing to wait up to 30 minutes to get screened, and 44% would travel more than 20 minutes to get screened. There were no statistically significant differences in barriers and facilitators when the analyses were stratified by LCS eligibility. Conclusions We found acceptability of mobile lung cancer screening and preferences that are actionable including daytime weekday events, indoor waiting, short waits, proximity to home, clear cost coverage, and streamlined clinician recommendation.
Zou, W. W.; Carlton, E. J.; Grover, E. N.
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Background. Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events (EWEs) with potentially profound consequences for zoonotic disease dynamics, yet the mechanisms linking EWEs to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks remain poorly characterized. The ongoing H5N1 panzootic, responsible for infection in over 500 avian and mammalian species, as well as nearly 1000 human cases and 477 deaths worldwide, provides a critical opportunity to evaluate how climate conditions shape spillover risk at landscape scales. Methods. We compiled a county-month dataset of confirmed H5N1 detections across the contiguous United States from 2022 to 2024 and integrated it with satellite-derived climate metrics, storm event data, and wild bird activity data. We trained and validated a gradient boosting machine classifier to predict outbreak risk and characterize predictor relationships. Results. Our model achieved strong discriminative performance (AUC-ROC = 0.856; AUC-PR = 0.237, representing a 7-fold improvement over chance) and high recall (0.726), supporting its utility as an early warning tool. Human population and temperature-related variables were the most influential predictors: cold temperature shocks and prolonged low temperatures were consistently associated with elevated outbreak risk, likely through enhanced environmental viral persistence, wild bird habitat compression, and allostatic stress-driven immunosuppression in reservoir hosts. Among storm variables, high wind coverage elevated risk, potentially via aerosol dispersal of contaminated particulates, while tornado activity showed an inverse relationship, consistent with documented avoidant behavior in migratory birds. Wild bird reservoir density showed a strong positive monotonic relationship with outbreak risk. Conclusions. Our analyses demonstrate that routinely available environmental and infection data can be used to predict HPAI outbreak risk at fine spatiotemporal scales. These findings demonstrate the divergent roles of short- versus long-term environmental exposures in HPAI spillover dynamics, as well as the potential for machine learning-based surveillance tools to inform targeted biosecurity interventions and early warning systems.
Mullen, C.; Barr, R. D.; Strumpf, E.; El-Zein, M.; Franco, E. L.; Malagon, T.
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BackgroundTimely cancer diagnosis in children and adolescents is critical to improving outcomes, yet substantial variation in diagnostic intervals persists across cancer types and care settings. We aimed to quantify time to diagnosis and assess variations by patient, demographic, and system-level factors. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective population-based study of children and adolescents aged 0-19 years diagnosed with one of 12 common cancers between 2010 and 2022 in Quebec, Canada. The diagnostic interval was defined as the time from first cancer-related healthcare encounter to diagnosis. We calculated medians and interquartile ranges (IQR) overall and by cancer type and used multivariable quantile regression to identify factors associated with time to diagnosis at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles. ResultsAmong 2,927 individuals with cancer, diagnostic intervals varied by cancer type and age. Median intervals were longest for carcinomas (100 days; IQR 33-192) and shortest for leukemias (8 days; IQR 3-44). Compared with children living in Montreal, living in regional areas and other large urban centres was associated with longer 50th and 75th percentiles of time to diagnosis for hepatic and central nervous system (CNS) tumours. Diagnostic intervals were shorter in the post-pandemic period (2020-2022) across several cancer sites, with CNS tumours showing reductions across all quantiles. InterpretationDiagnostic timeliness differed by cancer type, age, and rurality, but not by sex, material, or social deprivation. The shorter diagnostic intervals observed in the post-pandemic period suggest that pandemic-related changes in care pathways may have expedited diagnosis for some cancers.
Feng, X.; Ginjupalli, R.; Lukhorito, J.; Karanja, D.; Mounir, M.; Nderitu, M.; Masinde, M.; Siminski, S.; Mao, L.; Sahasrabuddhe, V. V.; Diwan, N. M.; Chung, M. H.
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Background: Cervical cancer remains a major public health challenge among women living with HIV (WLWH) in sub-Saharan Africa, where screening coverage remains suboptimal despite opportunities for integration within HIV care programs. Visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) has been widely used as a low-cost screening approach in resource-limited settings. Methods: This cross-sectional analysis utilized prospectively collected data from Project CN001 at the Coptic Hope Center for Infectious Diseases in Nairobi, Kenya, a CASCADE Clinical Trials Network site. WLWH aged 25-49 years receiving routine HIV care and undergoing VIA screening between March 11, 2025, and January 16, 2026, were included. Data from the REDCap and Kenya's electronic medical record system (KenyaEMR) captured sociodemographic characteristics, HIV clinical factors, VIA results, and cervical transformation zone (TZ) classification. Results: Among 857 WLWH screened with VIA, the median age was 40 years (interquartile ranges [IQR]: 34-45), and 77.2% reported a prior history of cervical cancer screening. VIA positivity was 7.4% (63/857) and was higher in women with TZ1/TZ2 than in those with TZ3. VIA positivity was also associated with higher HIV viral load, shorter time since HIV diagnosis, no cervical screening history, and younger age at screening. The proportion of women classified as TZ3 increased with age, from 39.5% among women aged 25-29 years to 67.7% among those aged 45-49 years, while the proportion classified as TZ1 decreased with increasing age. Conclusion: Integrated screening at this urban U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and CASCADE-supported HIV clinic demonstrates the feasibility of integrated cervical cancer screening programs for WLWH. Age-related TZ3 predominance and VIA limitations for older women highlight the need for refined screening strategies and continued electronic platform utilization for program monitoring to support cervical cancer elimination targets.
Reisberg, S.; Oja, M.; Mooses, K.; Tamm, S.; Sild, A.; Talvik, H.-A.; Laur, S.; Kolde, R.; Vilo, J.
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Background: The increasing availability of routinely collected health data offers new opportunities for population-level research, yet access to comprehensive, linked, and standardised datasets remains limited. We describe EST-Health-30, a large-scale, population-representative health data resource from Estonia. Methods: EST-Health-30 comprises a random 30% sample of the Estonian population (~500,000 individuals), with longitudinal data from 2012 to 2024 and annual updates planned through 2026. Individual-level records are linked across five nationwide databases, including electronic health records, health insurance claims, prescription data, cancer registry, and cause of death records. A privacy-preserving hashing approach ensures consistent cohort inclusion over time while maintaining pseudonymisation. All data are harmonised to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (version 5.4) using international standard vocabularies. Data quality was assessed using established OMOP-based validation frameworks. Results: The dataset contains rich multimodal information on diagnoses, procedures, laboratory measurements, prescriptions, free-text clinical notes, healthcare utilisation, and costs, with high population coverage and longitudinal depth. Data quality assessment showed high completeness and consistency, with 99.2% of applicable checks passing. The age-sex distribution closely reflects the national population, supporting representativeness, though coverage is marginally below the target 30% (29.2%), primarily attributable to recent immigrants without health system contact. The dataset enables construction of detailed clinical cohorts, analysis of disease trajectories, and evaluation of healthcare utilisation and outcomes across the life course. Conclusions: EST-Health-30 is a comprehensive, standardised, and population-representative real-world data resource that supports epidemiological, clinical, and methodological research. Its alignment with the OMOP CDM facilitates reproducible analytics and participation in international federated research networks, while secure access infrastructure ensures compliance with data protection regulations.
Warner, B. E.; Patel, J.; Satterwhite, R.; Wang, R.; Adams-Haduch, J.; Koh, W.-P.; Yuan, J.-M.; Shair, K. H. Y.
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PurposeAntibodies to Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) proteins can predict nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) risk. We previously defined a prototype EBNA1 protein panel and multiplex immunoblot assay that distinguishes NPC risk several years pre-diagnosis. Assay throughput and specificity are critical to effectively implement a population-level screening program. Here, we developed a strip test assay - EBNA1 SeroStrip-HT - with an objective to increase throughput and maximize specificity. Experimental DesignEBNA1 full-length (FL) and glycine-alanine repeat deletion mutants (dGAr) were purified from insect and mammalian cells to screen serum IgA/IgG from prospective cohorts in Singapore and Shanghai, China, with known time intervals to NPC diagnosis. Twenty pre-diagnostic sera within 4 years to diagnosis were compared to 96 healthy controls using a nested case-control study design. ResultsIgA to mammalian-derived EBNA1 dGAr achieved 85.0% sensitivity and 94.8% specificity (AUC, 0.939) for NPC status. IgA to insect-derived EBNA1 dGAr showed the same sensitivity (85.0%) and similar specificity (93.8%) (AUC, 0.941). IgA to insect-derived EBNA1 FL had a higher 90% sensitivity, but lower 91.7% specificity (AUC, 0.940). Combining EBNA1 FL and dGAr results showed that subjects positive for both proteins had a 243.67 odds ratio for NPC incidence compared to double-negative scores. ConclusionThis study demonstrated the efficacy of EBNA1 SeroStrip-HT for NPC risk assessment and stratification in high- and intermediate-risk populations, yielding high accuracy and a 12-fold increased throughput over the prototype. The insect system was appropriate for large-scale production of purified EBNA1. Larger, geographically diverse cohorts are warranted to confirm these results, especially in low-incidence populations.
Chen, Y.; Wu, Y.; Weber, A.; Medina, A.; Guo, Y.; Balakrishnan, S.; Zhang, H.; Zhou, H.; Rozelle, S.; Darmstadt, G. L.; Sylvia, S.
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Comprehensive and responsive interventions are increasingly prioritized to address the diverse and evolving health challenges faced by mothers and children during the first 1,000 days of life. However, evidence remains limited on how such interventions can be operationalized in low-resource settings without overstretching frontline health workers. We developed a comprehensive yet flexible community-based intervention, the Healthy Future program, which integrates a stage-based maternal and child health curriculum with mHealth-enabled infrastructure to deliver targeted, stage-based support through home visits in low-resource settings. We evaluated its impact through a cluster-randomized controlled trial across 119 rural townships in China. The program demonstrated improvements across multiple health, behavioral, and intermediate outcomes, including young child feeding practices, caregiving knowledge, maternal mental health, and perceived social support. Overall, this study illustrates a move beyond stand-alone interventions toward a scalable, multidimensional delivery model capable of providing comprehensive, flexible, and timely support to mothers and children in low-resource communities while remaining feasible for large-scale implementation.
Papi, A.; Halpin, D. M. G.; Feldman, R. G.; Ison, M. G.; Schwarz, T. F.; Lee, D.-G.; Incalzi, R. A.; Fissette, L.; Xavier, S.; David, M.-P.; Michaud, J.-P.; Kotb, S.; Marechal, C.; Olivier, A.; Hulstrom, V.; Van der Wielen, M.; the AReSVi-006 study group,
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BackgroundWe explored the efficacy of AS01E-adjuvanted respiratory syncytial virus prefusion F protein-based vaccine (adjuvanted RSVPreF3) in subpopulations of participants with underlying medical conditions in the multi-country, phase 3 AReSVi-006 trial (conducted May/2021-May/2024). MethodsMedically stable [≥]60-year-olds were 1:1-randomised to receive one adjuvanted RSVPreF3 or placebo dose pre-RSV season 1. In exploratory post-hoc analyses in subgroups of participants with underlying conditions (including COPD, asthma, diabetes, obesity [BMI[≥]30 kg/m2]), we evaluated efficacy of one vaccine dose against RSV-related lower respiratory tract disease (RSV-LRTD), acute respiratory illness (RSV-ARI), and RSV-ARI-related complications (e.g., pneumonia, COPD/asthma exacerbation, cardiovascular events). We also evaluated (post-hoc) RSV-ARI-related systemic corticosteroid and antibiotics use in participants with COPD or asthma. ResultsThe efficacy analyses comprised 12,468 vaccine and 12,498 placebo recipients. Efficacy against RSV-LRTD over three RSV seasons was similar among participants with COPD (75.1%, 95% CI: 40.2-91.4), asthma (65.8%, 31.0-84.7), diabetes (69.8%, 37.5-87.1), and obesity (74.1%, 56.4-85.5) as in the overall study population (62.9%, 97.5% CI: 46.7-74.8). Efficacy was also observed against RSV-ARI in these subgroups. Efficacy against RSV-ARI-related complications was 74.4% (95% CI: 11.2-95.2) in participants with COPD and 60.8% (-9.9-88.7) in those with asthma. Among participants with COPD, 15.4% (1.9-45.4) of RSV-ARI episodes in vaccine vs 22.4% (12.5-35.3) in placebo recipients were treated with systemic corticosteroids, and 46.2% (19.2-74.9) vs 56.9% (43.2-69.8) with antibiotics. ConclusionsPost-hoc analyses of the AReSVi-006 trial suggest that adjuvanted RSVPreF3 may help prevent RSV-ARI, RSV-LRTD, and RSV-related complications in medically stable older adults with underlying medical conditions like COPD and asthma. Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04886596 SummaryPost-hoc analyses of the AReSVi-006 trial suggest that 1 dose of adjuvanted RSVPreF3 may help prevent RSV-related illness and complications over 3 consecutive RSV seasons in subgroups of [≥]60-year-olds with chronic medical conditions, e.g., COPD and asthma.
Ross, R. A.; Walsh, S. K.; Montgomery, H.; Chen, H.; Hutchinson, E.; Murcia, P. R.
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The emergence of the panzootic clade of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (2.3.4.4b) in 2020 marked a major expansion in the host range of influenza A viruses (IAVs), raising concerns about further cross-species transmission events and zoonotic spillover. Introduction of 2.3.4.4b viruses into U.S. dairy herds has resulted in widespread circulation, accompanied by reduced milk yield, mastitis, and high viral loads in milk. Notably, virus circulation in dairy cattle represents a novel route for mammalian adaptation and transmission that has already led to more than 40 human cases in the U.S. since 2024. Here, we investigated whether avian clade 2.3.4.4b viruses could infect mammary tissue from Aberdeen Angus, Holstein Friesian, and Limousin cattle, three breeds commonly farmed in Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. Using mammary gland explants, we inoculated tissues with attenuated reassortant viruses expressing the haemagglutinin and neuraminidase glycoproteins of three 2.3.4.4b viruses that predated the emergence of H5N1 in US cattle: A/chicken/England/053052/2021 (AIV07), A/chicken/Scotland/054477/2021 (AIV09), and A/chicken/England/085598/2022 (AIV48). Infected epithelial cells were identified using immunohistochemistry in explants from both the teat and gland cistern for all three breeds following infection with AIV09 and AIV48, indicating that mammary tissue from each of the three tested cattle breeds cattle is permissive to H5N1 infection. Lectin staining showed expression of both 2,3-linked and 2,6-linked sialic acids in the mammary tissue of all donors showing that all three breeds have the potential to support infection with both avian-adapted and mammalian adapted IAVs. Together, these findings demonstrate that mammary glands from both beef and dairy cattle breeds are permissive to infection with avian-adapted and mammalian-adapted H5N1 viruses and highlight the potential for this tissue to act as a mixing vessel for IAV reassortment, underscoring the need to include cattle in ongoing H5N1 surveillance and risk-assessment frameworks. Impact StatementThe emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in dairy cattle has expanded the recognised host range of influenza A viruses. Further, the ability of the virus to infect the mammary gland and transmit via milk revealed a novel interface for transmission to humans and animals. Although sustained circulation in US dairy herds has been reported, the susceptibility of mammary tissue from other breeds (including beef cattle) commonly used in different countries has been largely unexplored. Here, we show that avian-origin H5N1 viruses can infect tissues derived from the mammary gland of three common cattle breeds (Aberdeen Angus, Holstein Friesian, and Limousin). Virus was detected in epithelial cells from both dairy and beef breeds, indicating that H5N1 can infect multiple breeds. Receptor profiling showed abundant 2,3-linked and 2,6-linked sialic acids, consistent with a tissue environment that may support infection with both avian-adapted and mammalian-adapted viruses. These findings demonstrate that multiple cattle breeds are permissive to H5N1 infection and strengthens the evidence base for including cattle in H5N1 surveillance and risk-assessment frameworks.